There Are Two Ever-Widening Wars Bringing the World to Its Armageddon Moment
Paul Craig Roberts
Yesterday, Sunday, I was interviewed by Sullivan Ahmed for an hour. https://www.youtube.com/live/Qs5OM6sRgr4
I explained that the tit-for-tat game that Iran and Washington are playing works perfectly for Israel. Israel is the source of the violence. Washington is merely acting for Israel. It is not Washington that gains from war with Iran. The war is in behalf of Israel’s agenda of Greater Israel. Israel is again attempting have Washington destroy Iran and again to occupy southern Lebanon and eventually the entire country. Hezbollah is resisting, and Iran makes Hezbollah’s resistance possible. Yet Israel is not experiencing the cost of the conflict for which Israel is the source. The Iranian sites targeted by Washington and the American bases in the Gulf states and Jordan suffer. It is not Israel that is being hit. So there is no cost to Israel for the conflict to continue. I made the point that Iran’s tit-for-tat with Washington is pointless, completely stupid. When Washington attacks Iran, Iran should attack the country responsible–Israel. If Israel was bearing the cost, Israel would have some incentive to leave Lebanon alone and to abide by the Memorandum of Understanding instead of undermining the peace negotiations, which Israel has successfully done.
This morning, Monday, I was interviewed by Nima Alkhorshid on his program Dialogue Works. https://www.youtube.com/live/Ja02dUKFqgs
I also explained to Nima that it was not intelligent for Iran to shield Israel and the Gulf Oil Sheikdoms from the conflict. The Gulf Sheikdoms enable the conflict by providing bases for Washington’s attacks on Iran, and Israel is the cause of the conflict. Iran warns the Gulf States before Iran indulges in tit-for-tat, so the Gulf States have no incentive to evict the US bases used for attacks on Iran. And Israel has no incentive to tell Washington to stop the attacks on Iran.
America has nothing to gain from a war with Iran and much to lose, such as finding herself responsible for a worldwide energy problem. By playing pointless tit-for-tat with Washington, Iran enables the false narrative that the dispute is between Iran and Washington, not between Israel and the Muslim Middle East.
I also explained to Nima that Iran was probably mistaken that its best weapon against Washington is to close the Strait of Hormuz and rely on an energy crisis to wear down Washington. I see three problems with this strategy. One is that the strategy focuses Iran off of its real enemy–Israel–on to merely an agent of Israel–Washington. Israel is the enemy Iran has to defeat, which cannot be achieved by focusing on Washington.
A second problem is that in the propaganda war, Iran will be further isolated by being blamed for everyone’s energy problems, because Iran closed the Strait.
The third problem is that reportedly the US is energy independent. I explained to Nima that whatever happened to the world price, perhaps further elevated by the Yemeni destroying the Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea, it was unlikely Washington would permit US energy to be exported. I cannot imagine Washington unable to get its jet fighters off the ground because American energy companies have been permitted to sell energy abroad at the world price. The US price will be fixed and the energy forbidden to be exported. If necessary, the US oil industry will be nationalized.
What will happen is that energy markets will be segmented. Countries with oil will have lower prices. Countries without oil will have higher prices. Yes, there will be a temptation to smuggle oil to the highest price, but the risk would be high.
All that I explained to Sulaiman and Nima, as important as it is, might count for little if the information to which I was alerted today by John Helmer is correct. https://johnhelmer.net/bleeding-to-death-is-not-a-russian-option/
Helmer alerted me to a development, which if true, is likely to change the correlation of forces in the Persian Gulf against Iran. Reports in the Turkish press say President Erdogan of Turkey has decided to transfer his Russian S-400 air defense system, the best in the world, to “one of three US allies in the war against Iran– Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Qatar. Erdogan wants to regain access to US F-35 fighter jets, access that was cut off by his purchase the Russian air defense system. So why not simply return the system to Russia? Why sell it to Iran’s enemies? Why should Russia agree to this betrayal of a BRICS member?
“Russia open to Turkey selling S-400 air defense systems to UAE, sources say” https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-open-turkey-selling-s-400-systems-uae-sources-say
“The Russian government views the potential sale of S-400 air defense systems currently operated by Turkey to the United Arab Emirates in a “positive light”, multiple sources familiar with the issue told Middle East Eye, while cautioning that negotiations have yet to be completed.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirms that the Kremlin is discussing with Turkey the transfer of the S-400 Russian air defense system to Iran’s enemies. This shows you what a piece of shit ally Russia is. Money comes first and nothing else matters. Helmer quotes a Russian source:
” I expect no limits to what the Kremlin will stoop in their money-making now. You can expect, a year from now, Russian S-400s and 500s will be sold direct to the Emiratis and Saudis. No doubt about it. Strictly speaking, the Turks do not have to do a resale. They will say they are giving military defensive cover, jointly with Europe and the US, to the Arabs; the Russians will go along with that.”
My understanding is that the operative range of the S-400 covers the entire Persian Gulf and likely Israel and Jordan as well. In other words, the S-400 completely disarms Iran.
Here is my speculation about how this surprising deal is being put together. When Turkey purchased the S-400, a purchase that is inexplicable. Why would the Kremlin deliver the technology of the world standard–the S-400–to a member of NATO? Is the answer the stupid Kremlin chasing money at the cost of Russia’s existence? Helmer’s sources think so.
Or was it an ill-conceived plot to bribe Turkey away from NATO into Russia’s orbit? If so, it did not work.
Putin has needlessly, gratuitously, left Russia mired in a 4.5 year old conflict that due to Putin’s irresolution and prevarication has moved from Donbas to deep inside Russia. Putin now faces state-of-the-art drones produced in Germany and transported without Russian interference to Ukraine where they are guided by US targeting systems into attacks on Russian refineries and fuel storage. Russia has been sufficiently damaged that Russia now must import diesel fuel. Putin pretends that this is not war, merely a terrorist operation. Never in history has a country’s leader displayed such refusal to recognize an existential threat.
Putin has been trying to stay afloat by riding two contending horses. One is the horse of the Russian military and patriotic citizens. The other horse is the horse of the Russian oligarchs whose wealth was stolen from the state during the period of the Soviet collapse. My solution, which I presented to the Soviet Union in its last year was not followed, and a few seized the wealth of the country.
Those who stole Russia’s wealth were the West’s allies against Russia from day one. And these pro-American, not pro-Russian, interests are 50% of the advice that the Kremlin receives.
Here is what is what is happening. Krill Dmitriev has told Putin that the more the Kremlin sucks up to Trump, the more likely the Ukrainian Conflict will be reconciled by mutually profitable business deals, which is the aim of the Russian Oligarchs. The point was made to Putin that protecting Israel and the American Gulf states that host the US attacks on Iran from attack by Iranian missiles wins brownie points that can free Russia from the sanctions on its oligarchs..
Where does all this go? In my thinking at this time, the world without its wish is heading into two big wars. All of humanity will be destroyed. No where in the governments of the world is there any capability to comprehend the reality that confronts them. Each dumbshit government has its own narrative, and none of them are correct.
Where are the leaders of humanity? Why are there none?