The Coming Renewal of the War Against Iran
Paul Craig Roberts
Yesterday Sulaiman Ahmed and I discussed the widening war in the Middle East or West Asia as the area is now called. https://www.youtube.com/live/R5-GMxCcTD0
Washington and Israel have the Muslims allied against one another and in combat against one another as Washington and Israel prepare to renew their attack on Iran. Washington is in the process of moving US troops to areas less likely to be hit by Iranian missiles and drones. Flights of the Israeli Air Force in the air space of Syria and Iraq, as if these two countries still exist, indicate the Israeli preparation. Iran is aware of the coming attack, and Iran’s military leader continues to emphasize that Iran’s response will be harsh. Once again Iran is foolishly awaiting to absorb an Israeli-American first strike on Iran’s forces before entering the conflict.
The correlation of forces are against Iran, as the Iranian resistance to the Zionist agenda of Greater Israel consists of Iran, the Hezbollah militia in southern Lebanon, and the Houthi in Yemen, and both Hezbollah and the Houthi are weapon dependent on Iran.
Arrayed against Iran are the nuclear powers Israel and Washington and also the rest of the Muslim world. Now that the alliance between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, another nuclear power, has been made public, it is an alliance whereby an attack on one is an attack on all. It seems intended to bring Turkey and Pakistan into the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen on the side of Saudi Arabia.
As the Houthi are Iran’s allies, the implication is that the alliance brings Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia into the Israeli-American war against Iran. Additionally, Egypt has offered military support to Saudi Arabia. So Israeli-American bribes and threats have the Muslim Middle East divided against itself and aiding the Israeli-American assault on Muslim sovereignty and independence.
As I was concerned would be the case, Iran’s acceptance of the initial ceasefire has resulted in a much wider conflict. Iran had Washington and Israel defeated, but acceptance of the ceasefire stopped Iran from completing its victory.
With the correlation of forces against Iran, Iran should not wait on the attack but should strike first and disrupt the preparations for the attack on Iran. Why allow an enemy to weaken your force before committing it to the conflict? If the hesitation reflects Iran’s concern that nuclear weapons would be used against Iran, it means that Iran cannot afford to win the conflict regardless whether Iran accepts a first strike or preempts one.
I had thought that Russia and China for whom Iran is an important buffer against the march of American hegemony into their countries would protect their natural ally by forming a mutual security agreement with Iran. That would more than even the score in Iran’s interests and prevent a wider conflict. Moreover, it would cause Israeli-American reconsideration of the Zionist agenda of Greater Israel and perhaps lead to its abandonment and to peace in the Middle East. Such an alliance would also deflate the Washington neoconservatives’ world hegemonic agenda
Unfortunately, neither the Russian nor Chinese governments had enough wits to act responsibly in their own interests. And India didn’t either.
Consequently, unless the approaching elections in Israel and the US interfere with the Washington/Israeli plans, there will be a widening of the war and more damage to oil flows with winter approaching in Europe, Canada and the US. The unintentional consequences of Israeli-American ambitions and witlessness of Russian and Chinese governments could be catastrophic.