PCR On Target and Dialogue Works Explores the Claim that the Strait of Hormuz Is Open and that Oil Flows have Returned to Normal
Paul Craig Roberts
Two days ago on Sunday Larry Sparano and I discussed On Target the latest claims by US Central Command, the US Treasury Secretary, and the London Telegraph that the US was in complete control of the Strait of Hormuz and had been for the past few months during which one billion barrels of oil had, under US escort, exited the Persian Gulf through the strait and that the daily average of barrels of oil leaving the Gulf was back to prewar levels. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Mr1TVgp8Ho
Despite these declarations that the crisis has been over for two months or more, the oil prices are still high, Trump is pressuring France to release its oil reserves in order to keep the energy price from rising more before the US midterm election, and Trump is sending a third US aircraft carrier task force and 50,000 more Marines to the area, and is considering a major land invasion and perhaps use of nuclear weapons. Why all these drastic measures if the strait is open and oil flows have returned to normal? How is it possible that neither the media nor the Trump regime notice the contradictions in these reports.
Yesterday, Monday, Nima and I continued the discussion on Dialogue Works. The New York Times and Wall Street Journal had joined in the chorus that the strait was open and in Washington’s hands. But still no one explained how the Persian Gulf had passed out of Iran’s hands into Washington’s, especially when the US bases in the Persian Gulf were all inoperative and the closest US warship to the strait was a thousand kilometers distant. https://www.youtube.com/live/zpF56Bt6cOY
My question why the energy prices remained high if oil flows have been at normal levels for months apparently got the notice of the NY Times and President Trump. The NY Times’ explanation is that the Saudis and the Emirates are so desperate to get their oil out that they are paying tanker owners 10 times higher fees to take the risk of clearing the strait. But the Times does not explain why there is a risk if the US is in charge and the strait is open. Neither does the NY Times explain why the oil tankers have to be escorted by US Navy F/A-18 jet fighters, which the NY Times reports they are, if the strait is open and under US control.
The probability of the oil tankers being protected from F-18s from the distant aircraft carriers is low. The maximum combat range of a lightly loaded F-18 with only two missiles is about 2,000 kilometers. With a heavier weapon payload the range is about 1,000 kilometers. With three external fuel tanks the F-18 can make 3,000 kilometers but to make room for the fuel tanks is too lightly armed to serve as a combat weapon.
As the closest US carrier is 1,000 kilometers from the strait, to get there and back uses up the range of a lightly armed F-18. As a F-18 cannot fly as slow as a oil tanker moves, the F-18s would have to fly back and forth over the oil tankers to keep them within protected range. Thus, the 2,000 kilometer limit on the lightly armed F-18s is insufficient to escort the ships safely out of the range of Iranian missiles/drones and return to the carrier.
As Trump’s advisers are likely more knowledgeable about the F-18’s operational capability, President Trump offers a different narrative why the oil prices remain high if the strait is open. Trump says the problem is the refineries. For Trumpian reasons the refineries simply can’t get the abundant oil refined into useable energy forms.
So, what actually is the real story? My explanation, based on the information we currently have, is that these false narratives are constructed in order to convince Wall Street, oil markets, and US voters that the energy crisis and high prices are behind us. As the relevant energy price is the future price, the prospect of a return to normal results in the future price being lower than the current price and, thus, reassures American voters of lower energy prices when they vote on November 3.
It is just another deception for political reasons.