Gilbert Doctorow Wonders if Putin Is Failing as a Leader
Trump, Putin and Cuba
GILBERT DOCTOROW
JAN 12, 2026
We are living through days of what may be called ‘Trump Unbound.’ Every morning brings news of the latest dramatic, disruptive actions by the United States President in domestic or international affairs. He is threatening Iran with military intervention; he makes daily pronouncements on the planned take-over of Greenland irrespective of whether this triggers the break-up of NATO; his legal team brings criminal charges against the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell.
I have commented in past months about how Vladimir Putin fills the first 15 minutes of every day’s news programs in Russia, but that is nothing compared to Trump’s domination of global news. We are witnessing an unparalleled cult of personality.
In the case of Trump, talk is not just about ribbon cutting ceremonies at infrastructure projects or about the honored profession of the day, as is the case with Vladimir Vladimirovich. Talk is linked to action, often to immediate and precipitous action as we have seen during the past couple of weeks and may continue to see in the coming weeks with respect to Venezuela, Greenland, Iran and….Cuba.
I address here the question of how Russia will react to U.S. military action against Cuba to bring about regime change. The speculation in Mainstream media is that Russia and China will both do absolutely nothing to protect Cuba against American aggression.
This eventuality, which I accept as probable, brings us straight back to what I have been discussing in recent weeks with regard to Putin’s overall approach to the West and whether he is truly working for global peace or is a damned fool whose caution is only leading to ever more brazen provocations that ultimately will end in a global, possibly nuclear war anyway.
The most radical formulator of the latter position is Paul Craig Roberts. I am less harsh with Putin, though I am deeply skeptical in his regard. I see much too much Russian appeasement of American and Western imperialism parading as wisdom and sanity in an insane world. And the longer it goes on, the tougher it is to draw a real line in the sand and threaten all-out war if it is crossed.
Looking over my ‘diary entries’ for the volume 2 of War Diaries’ that I will send to my production people in Arizona later today for publication in 6 weeks’ time, I was very impressed by what happened in November 2024, namely a display of Russian immediate and effective response to the U.S. crossing its red lines.
On 5 November Trump won the election. On 17 November Biden reversed course on giving Kiev long range precision missiles to do with as they wished (ATACMS). On 18 November the Ukrainians sent 6 ATACMS against an arms depot in Bryansk oblast (next to Kursk and just across from Kharkov), with one of the 6 getting through and destroying the facility. On 19 November Putin responded by signing his new nuclear doctrine which was a very big change in policy including the provision that any NATO member attacking Russia would result in Russia’s counter attack on the whole alliance, and that a conventional attack on Russia could result in a Russian nuclear attack. On the 21st November Russia fired its first Oreshnik against the Dnipro military production facility, destroying it.
Now that was NOT appeasement. However, I am unable to say whether Putin will make a stand over Cuba. He will have patriots around his neck if he lets Cuba fall to American aggression. The comparison with Khrushchev on Cuba, and recollection of the settlement of the missile crisis in 1962 with agreement that the U.S. would not attack Cuba again, will be much too adverse for Putin’s remaining in power. But I guess he will let Cuba be grabbed.
Of course, inside the Kremlin some may argue that Trump’s reasserting the Monroe Doctrine has to be swallowed and should be offset by Russia and China doing what is needed to establish hegemony in their respective neighborhoods. The implication of that for Moscow would be an immediate escalation of military activity in Ukraine with a view to taking all territory east of the Dnieper, taking Odessa, taking Kharkov in the coming month or two, rather than in the coming three years, which is the timetable that Putin’s present course of action suggests.
There will be others in the entourage of the Kremlin who would not under any circumstances want Cuba to be lost because of the example of bravery set by Khrushchev.
I doubt that Putin will ever explain publicly why Russia does nothing to save Cuba now, however, if he wished to speak truthfully to the Russian nation he could say the following: International relations and weaponry today are not the same as they were in Khrushchev’s day. In 1962, when Khrushchev moved nuclear armed missiles into Cuba, that was a response to medium range U.S. missiles stationed in Italy and Turkey aimed at Moscow. He made a strategic move on the chessboard, and though he may have had to sacrifice a Queen, meaning to remove those missiles under U.S. threat, he did achieve the objective of getting the U.S. to remove its missiles in the aforementioned forward posts.
Today, Russia is again threatened by U.S. nuclear armed missiles in its neighborhood. But it has its own counter threat to U.S. security in the form of submarines, surface navy ships and ordinary merchant container ships traveling just outside the U.S. territorial waters and carrying hypersonic missiles that can strike Washington and other major American cities and military bases in just minutes.
In the 1960s, Cuba was a strategic asset for Russia. Today it would be a strategic liability if Russia felt obliged to defend the island.
However, that is not the only problem facing Vladimir Putin as he defends Russian sovereignty. Trump’s designs on Iran are a far greater threat to Russia’s security interests than Cuba, the loss of which is only a hit to Russia’s Soft Power. If there is regime change now in Iran, it may directly impair Russia’s hold on the Caucasus and it will directly influence the behavior of Russia’s allies in Central Asia, who will once again begin to balance their relations with the U.S.-led West against relations with Russia.
My reading of the Iranian President Pezeshkian is that he is a weakling. The news today that Teheran has reached out to Washington for talks to find some accommodation is not a good sign that regime change can be avoided.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2026