Are Putin and United Russia in Decline?
Paul Craig Roberts
Gilbert Doctorow and John Helmer are two observers of Russia who often do not agree. But in the past day or two both have raised the same question. Doctorow asks if Putin is on the ropes in the forthcoming September election and facing the possible defeat of his governing party, United Russia? https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/judging-freedom-edition-of-29-april?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1203055&post_id=195871036&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=dx5km&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Helmer asks: “Does Putin understand he is discrediting himself with Russian voters as the national parliamentary election campaign gets under way?” https://johnhelmer.net/the-kursk-syndrome-president-putin-is-displaying-symptoms-of-an-old-problem-russian-voters-recognise/
Doctorow reports that Russian polls show that support for United Russia has dropped, perhaps leaving Putin’s party neck and neck with Gennady Zyuganov’s Communist Party. Zyuganov recently said that if the central bank and war policy of Putin’s government did not change, Putin could face a February 1917 style revolution this September.
Whereas Doctorow speaks of United Russia’s decline in approval, Helmer reports a decline in Russian approval of Putin himself. Putin’s approval is still high and no other candidate’s approval has risen. Still, Putin is paying a price for the idiotic high interest rate policy of his protected central bank director and for the ever-widening, never-ending conflict with Washington which uses Ukraine as a proxy. Putin’s unwillingness to use sufficient force to bring the conflict to an end has, according to Russian reports, resulted in 8,000 Russian civilian casualties far from the battlefield and in the disruption of Russian energy production. Doctorow reports that the important Russian TV news analysis program has grown more critical of Putin’s war policy or lack thereof. Moreover, the Russian population is seeing more amputees from the conflict on the streets, and there are rumors that Putin and his government are keeping the war going in order to pocket money from the war contracts.
Helmer reports:
According to the March 18-26 survey by Levada — conducted by face-to-face interviews with a random sample of voters in their homes across the country – “six out of ten respondents negatively assess the current political situation in Russia – 61% (including 52% considering it tense, and 9% critical, explosive), the share of such respondents has increased by 9 percentage points since May 2025. A third of the respondents look positively at the political situation in the country (including 27% talking about it as calm, 9% as prosperous). But since May 2025 their share has decreased by 10 percentage points…”
“More often than others, the political situation in Russia is assessed as tense, critical, or explosive by women (70%); those aged from 40 to 54; the less well-off (65% — 67% among those with barely enough for food); residents of cities with a population of 100,000 to 500,000 (68%); entrepreneurs (71%); those who believe that things in the country are on the wrong track (89%); and those who do not approve the performance of the incumbent president.”
Is Putin playing into the hands of the Zionist neoconservatives who think Russia can be destabilized?
I have always been concerned that the never-ending war would widen until it was out of control. The question is why has Putin been against a quick Russian military victory, which is clearly in Russia’s power as Doctorow and I have stressed? My speculation has been that Putin wished to use the conflict to achieve a mutual defense agreement with the West that would get NATO off of Russia’s borders. Doctorow’s speculation is that Putin represents the Russian oligarchs who benefit from the war economy.
Whatever the reason, the high interest rates and continuation of a conflict that could easily and quickly be won have become political costs to Putin and United Russia. These political costs might be rising if Putin’s expressions of solidarity with Trump are perceived as attempts to ingratiate himself with Trump. Putin’s reliance on Dmitriev seems to have refocused Putin’s foreign policy from winning a war on Russia’s terms to a deal that helps Dmitriev’s business friends by removing US sanctions.
Bad political decisions are more common than good ones. Putin’s decisions are examples of bad decisions. As are Trump’s, Netanyahu’s, and Iran’s. Trump has split his MAGA movement. Netanyahu is isolating Israel. Iran has been damaged by the government’s reliance on negotiations and ceasefires.
Bad decisions produce more conflict than good decisions, which is the reason that human history is mainly a history of conflict.
Addendum: Doctorow’s latest statement is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaI2NPIz9rg