We Are a Long Way from a Peace Deal
Paul Craig Roberts
Friday came on Wednesday. Last night the Memorandum of Understanding that was supposed to be signed tomorrow in Switzerland was signed digitally by the US and Iranian presidents. The Iranian explanation for the digital signing is that “When the text is signed by the highest authorities of both countries, violating it will naturally carry greater costs. Given our past experiences, we preferred that this happen.”
Iran signed the MoU on the condition that Israel’s attacks on Lebanon cease. Israel has refused. So why did Iran sign? Perhaps the answer is that the onus is on President Trump to make Israel comply. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said:
.”We do not separate the US and the Zionist regime . . . it is the US’s responsibility to compel the Zionist regime to respect US commitments to Iran.” He added that Iran will monitor US implementation “without any leniency” and will only carry out its own commitments once the other side fulfills its promises.
All parties to the conflict except Israel have been claiming a US-Iranian “Peace Deal” as a “Major Victory.” Even Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia defending Lebanon from ongoing Israeli attack, calls it a victory.
This is very odd as there is no peace deal. There is a Memorandum of Understanding that is based on conditions with which Israel has refused to comply, namely the cessation of attacks on Lebanon and Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese occupied territories. The US and Iran are both taking credit for a non-existent peace deal. For example, Iran’s ambassador to India told reporters that the MoU is “a highly significant strategic achievement” for Iran and “constitutes a major victory for the Iranian nation.” https://www.rt.com/india/641740-mohammad-fathali-iran-us/
Trump claims credit for being the only person in the world capable of securing a peace deal with Iran and claims that one of the favorable consequences of the deal is that Qatar is going to invest $19.4 trillion in the US economy. As the US GDP is $32 trillion, the investment would be 60% of the size of US GDP, an impossible sum for Qatar to come up with. The $19.4 trillion figure has to be a typo or a delusional imagining by Trump. Moreover, unless such a massive investment in new plant and equipment was spread out over many years, the US lacks the available resources and the infrastructure to support it. If the massive investment went into existing companies, the effect would be to drive up stock prices and make equity holders very rich. It would be a transfer of wealth from Qatar to US equity owners.
The point is that both Iran and Trump are claiming credit for victories that do not exist. Moreover, unless Israel relents or Iran capitulates, the MoU will not produce a peace deal. The MoU is not a peace deal. It is an agreement that there will be a 60-day period in which the signatories will try to resolve the issues, such as Iran’s enrichment of nuclear material. All of the many issues have to be resolved before there can be a peace deal. None of the issues are resolved by signing the MoU.
The Israeli prime minister, war minister, and national security minister have stated without qualification that Israel will not comply with the conditions required by Iran to cease military activity in Lebanon. Israel’s principal ministers have stated that Israel will not halt its attacks on Lebanon or withdraw from occupied Lebanon territory.
A likely explanation why Iran nevertheless signed the MoU is that Iran wants to see if Trump’s pressure on Israel to comply damages the Israeli-American alliance against Iran and the Muslim Middle East. If it does, Iran will have achieved a greater victory than a peace deal. If Israel is left alone with its aggression and Zionist agenda of Greater Israel, the Israeli Zionists that constitute the Netanyahu government might have to give up their claims of territory from the Nile to Pakistan.
On the other hand, as I have emphasized in writings and interviews on Dialogue Works with Nima, only Israel has an agenda. The Zionist agenda is more than a century old. The Zionists are patient. It required 79 years for Israel to absorb Palestine into Israel. They are attempting for the third time to begin the absorption of Lebanon. See map: https://www.newarab.com/news/versailles-trump-signs-iran-us-agreement-israel-fumes?blockId=block_83101
The danger for Iran is in Iran’s premature claim of a strategic victory. Iran might feel compelled to continue the charade regardless of Israel’s compliance. If Washington senses Iranian weakness, Trump will likely shift his pressure from Israel to Iran and compel a peace agreement that is less than Iran needs.
The presstitutes have done a poor job of reporting a lengthy process that begins with a signed MoU and could develop into a peace deal. The media’s failure provides Trump with the cover he needs to switch pressure from Israel to Iran. On the other hand, Israel’s refusal to comply can easily result in an off-and-on conflict over the next decades like the long-term conflict that ended in Palestine’s absorption into Israel.
Netanyahu is likely betting that the power of the Israel Lobby over Trump exceeds Trump’s power over Israel. We will see who actually prevails. Today The Times of Israel has this headline: “Report: Netanyahu to lean on right-wing pundits, pro-Israel US senators, to influence final Iran deal.”